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[Anual Report 96 :
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Policies, Technologies and Global Changes

The three key words of this Project are Strategy, Futures and Communications. Both for internal priority setting and for external communications, CIFOR needs credible analyses of the likely future developments that affect the fate of forests and the people whose livelihoods are forest-based.

Identification and interpretation of "mega-trends" is crucial, e.g., discerning how changes in demographics, in the global economy or in bio-technology, interact to shape the future of forests. CIFOR maintains a comprehensive overview (both quantitative and qualitative) of the state of the world's tropical forests. We analyse major global trends in the patterns and structure of international supply and demand (in the broadest sense, including all goods and services that societies derive from forests), to assess the implications of such changes for forest policies and technologies. Such analyses and interpretations not only determine CIFOR's research agenda but also influence how other institutions and researchers think about possible future roles and contributions of forests. They help establish CIFOR's international profile.

CIFOR has extended other institutions' reviews e.g., FAO's "State of the World's Tropical Forests" and the World Conservation and Monitoring Centre (WCMC) Biodiversity Map Library as well as CIFOR's own research:

• to actively contribute to the international policy debates on tropical forests, through the scientific literature and in the major international policy fora (such as IPF), the independent World Commission on Forests and Sustainable Development (WCFSD), and the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD); and
  
• to provide the global context (and especially the policy environment) within which CIFOR's more specific thematic research is undertaken. It also provides a basis for both determining research priorities, and for the monitoring and assessment of the impacts of CIFOR research, and of policy reforms.

This Project helps consolidate the outputs of CIFOR's other Projects, and provides another vehicle for contributing to forest conservation and management, through direct communication with key opinion leaders; policy makers involved in forest conservation and management; multi-lateral and donor agencies; international and national environmental NGOs; and multi-national forestry corporations.

Major research undertakings during 1996 included:

1. Analysis of patterns, processes and underlying forces affecting global transitions in supplies and demands, and the possible social and economic implications of such trends. Specifically we have collaborated with FAO and WCMC on long-term scenarios for the future of the forestry sector in the Asia-Pacific region;
2. Synthesis of CIFOR's collective understanding of the causes of deforestation and forest degradation (and therefore potential policy interventions on a global scale), an international workshop in Indonesia in January with the Finnish Forest Research Institute, and contributions to a World Bank monograph on the subject;
3. Analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of a legally binding Global Forests Convention with the European Forestry Institute and the IUCN Environmental Law Center; and
4. Analysis of the role of forests in the well-being and quality of life of forest-dependent communities.

A number of publications have resulted from this work, independently and in collaboration with the numerous research partners. It is proposed to expand our in-house capacity to analyse both global change and institutions for the governance of forests through recruitment of post-doctoral fellows. Also, leading thinkers on these issues will be invited as short-term Visiting Scholars at CIFOR to prepare research reports analysing causes and consequences of forest changes on a pan-tropical scale.

We acknowledge UK-ODA's support for the collaboration with WCMC.

Principal Collaborators:
World Conservation Monitoring Centre, FAO, World Bank, European Forestry Institute, Finnish Forest Research Institute, IUCN, World Wide Fund for Nature.

CIFOR Project Team:
Neil Byron, Manuel Ruiz Pérez, Susan Iremonger, Mike Arnold, Jerry Vanclay.