Rate and Causes of Deforestation in
Indonesia:
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OccPaper Top Page] [Chapter 1] [Chapter 2] [Chapter 3] [Chapter 4] [Chapter 5] [Chapter 6] [Chapter 7] [Chapter 8] Tables [Table 1] [Table 2] [Table 3] |
INTRODUCTION Indonesia ranks third (behind Brazil and Zaire) in its endowment of tropical rainforests, possessing 10% of what remains in the world of this resource. Official estimates of the area of forested land in Indonesia diverge widely. The sixth Five-Year Development Plan (REPELITA VI, 1994/95-1998/99) says there were 92.4 million ha of forest land in 1993 (RI 1994: 312). This is 48.1% of the total land area. The National Forest Inventory, based on 1986-91 satellite data, estimates there are 120.6 million ha of forested land covering 69% of the land area (excluding Java) (GOI/FAO 1996: 17-18). The approximate distribution of Indonesia's forest cover is as follows: Kalimantan (32.0% of the total); Irian Jaya (29.9%); Sumatra (20.8%); Sulawesi (9.7%); Maluku (5.5%); and other (2.1%) (derived from GOI/FAO 1996: 36). Dating from the mid-1960s, commercial exploitation of forests in the outer islands [1] has grown rapidly and Indonesia is now one of the world leaders in the export of tropical timber (notably of plywood). In 1996, 445 logging concessions were operating on 54,060,599 ha. [2] In 1994, wood and wood products produced about US$ 5.5 billion in export revenue for Indonesia, about 15% of the total (Economist Intelligence Unit 1995b: 3). There are approximately 700,000 people employed in the formal forest sector (World Bank 1995: 1). In the course of the development of the timber industry, there has been a marked increase in the extent and rate of disappearance of Indonesia's forest cover. A 1990 FAO study found that the forest cover of the country has been reduced from 74% to 56% in the space of 30-40 years (FAO 1990: 3). The World Bank (1990: xx), referring to research by FAO, notes the following progression in the estimate of annual deforestation: in the 1970s, 300,000 ha/year; in 1981, 600,000 ha/year; in 1990, one million ha/year. It is tempting to conclude that the growth of the timber industry explains the perceived rapid acceleration of forest cover loss, since the two phenomena occur over the same period of time. An alternative explanation, however, holds that deforestation in the outer islands is principally a response to the growth of population density and the growth in the number of smallholders in those areas. Data on population density in Indonesia show a strong negative correlation with forest cover (FAO 1990: 10; Barbier et al. 1993: 7; Fraser 1996). [3] There are essentially two poles in the ongoing debate over the causes of deforestation in Indonesia (Table 1). On the one hand, there are explanations that see smallholder production and the growing number of such producers as the main cause of deforestation (FAO 1990; World Bank 1990; Barbier et al. 1993; Fraser 1996). These explanations tend to view civil society (i.e., non-state actors), and notably smallholders, as a lead force in forest cover removal. On the other hand there are explanations that, while acknowledging a significant role of smallholder production in deforestation, give greater emphasis to the role of government and its development projects, and to the timber sector (Dick 1991; WALHI 1992; Ascher 1993; Dauvergne 1994; Porter 1994; Thiele 1994; World Bank 1994; Angelsen 1995; Dove 1996; Hasanuddin 1996; Ross 1996). Table 1 shows the shifting "centre of gravity" of explanations in recent years. The World Bank and FAO postulated a central role for shifting cultivation in 1990. Most subsequent analyses contend the role of shifting cultivation has been over-estimated, and that of the timber sector has been under-estimated. Central to the new line of reasoning is the claim that the timber industry has a significant indirect role in deforestation, by logging lands that are subsequently occupied by smallholders. It is noteworthy that there has been a "sea change" in the posture of the World Bank, one of the key formal actors in the debate. In 1990, the World Bank (1990: xxi) estimated the annual rate of deforestation to be between 700,000 and 1,200,000 ha, viewed smallholder conversion as accounting for 350,000 - 650,000 ha of the total, and underscores its concern about shifting cultivation. In 1994, the World Bank (1994: ix, 19) identified management of forest concessions in the outer islands as one of the "highest priority" environmental issues facing the country and notes that the role of swidden agriculture in deforestation had been over-emphasised in previous studies. The World Bank (1994: 51) refers to the work of Dick (1991), who claims that programmes sponsored by the government (transmigration, estate crops, logging) explain 67% of all deforestation. The dramatic change in the posture of the World Bank should not be interpreted as a sign that the research community is closing in on understanding the extent and causes of deforestation in Indonesia. Quite to the contrary, it seems that although crucial pieces of knowledge have been accumulated, many uncertainties and puzzles remain. The World Bank (1994: 19) acknowledges that estimates of the annual rate of deforestation are based on weak data. Rather than offering an updated estimate of its own, the Bank instead reports the wide variation of estimates put forward by others, ranging from 263,000 ha/year to 1,315,000 ha/year (World Bank 1994: 52). The Bank appears ambiguous on the issue of agency in deforestation. On the one hand, it elevates the role of logging and government programmes in the process of deforestation and downplays that of swidden agriculture; on the other hand, it says that small-scale agriculture is the "largest cause of deforestation" (World Bank 1994: 53). Review of some of the main pieces of literature on deforestation in Indonesia reveals there are two primary reasons for weakness of the knowledge base on the subject. First, there is a lack of appropriate and/or reliable primary data on the rate and causes of forest cover change. [4] Dick (1991: 32) observes that, given this limitation, assessments of the extent and causes of deforestation in Indonesia are at best "semi-educated guesses". Second, commentators on the subject use such terms as "deforestation" and "shifting cultivation" to mean various things. This, as we shall see, introduces a great deal of confusion into the debate. The most useful step toward enhancing the knowledge-base on deforestation in Indonesia is to conduct a critical review of the available literature. In this way we can place a "confidence interval" on relevant parts of past analyses, define topics that require further inquiry, and propose guidelines for resolving ambiguities. This paper will review the literature through the following steps. First, the issue of unclear conceptualisation of the term "deforestation" and "agent of deforestation" will be addressed. Second, discussions of the various causes of forest cover change will be analysed. In sequence these will be: smallholders (shifting cultivation and "forest pioneer" cultivation; smallholder tree crop production; regular transmigration; spontaneous transmigration; population growth); logging and the timber industry; plantations and estates; and macro-economic policies; and other forms of causation that have received relatively little attention in the literature. Third, guidelines will be proposed for improved research on the rate and causes of forest cover change. The paper will close summarising the key issues requiring further research. |