Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are projected to occur within the next several decades, to be difficult to reverse, and to have regional- to global-scale impacts on human society. We provide an overview of ecosystem, socioeconomic, and biophysical mechanisms mediating regime shifts and illustrate how these interact at regional scales by aggregation, synergy, and spreading processes. We give detailed examples of interactions for terrestrial ecosystems of central South America and for marine and coastal ecosystems of Southeast Asia. This analysis suggests that degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services over the twenty-first century could be far greater than was previously predicted. We identify key policy and management opportunities at regional to global scales to avoid these shifts.
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TI - Interacting regional-scale regime shifts for biodiversity and ecosystem services
AU - Leadley, P.
AU - Proença, V.
AU - Fernández-Manjarrés, J.
AU - Pereira, H.M.
AU - Alkemade, R.
AU - Biggs, R.
AU - Bruley, E.
AU - Cheung, W.
AU - Cooper, D.
AU - Figueiredo, J.
AU - Gilman, E.
AU - Guénette, S.
AU - Hurtt, G.
AU - Mbow, C.
AU - Oberdorff, T.
AU - Revenga, C.
AU - Scharlemann, J.P.W.
AU - Scholes, R.
AU - Smi
AB - Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are projected to occur within the next several decades, to be difficult to reverse, and to have regional- to global-scale impacts on human society. We provide an overview of ecosystem, socioeconomic, and biophysical mechanisms mediating regime shifts and illustrate how these interact at regional scales by aggregation, synergy, and spreading processes. We give detailed examples of interactions for terrestrial ecosystems of central South America and for marine and coastal ecosystems of Southeast Asia. This analysis suggests that degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services over the twenty-first century could be far greater than was previously predicted. We identify key policy and management opportunities at regional to global scales to avoid these shifts.
PY - 2014
UR - https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/26796/
DO - https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biu093
KW - biodiversity, biodiversity change, biodiversity conservation, degradation, ecosystem services, ecosystems, human–environment interactions, natural resources, overexploitation, socioeconomics, south america, southeast asia, tipping points
ER -Endnote (.ciw)
%T Interacting regional-scale regime shifts for biodiversity and ecosystem services
%A Leadley, P.
%A Proença, V.
%A Fernández-Manjarrés, J.
%A Pereira, H.M.
%A Alkemade, R.
%A Biggs, R.
%A Bruley, E.
%A Cheung, W.
%A Cooper, D.
%A Figueiredo, J.
%A Gilman, E.
%A Guénette, S.
%A Hurtt, G.
%A Mbow, C.
%A Oberdorff, T.
%A Revenga, C.
%A Scharlemann, J.P.W.
%A Scholes, R.
%A Smi
%D 2014
%U https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/26796/
%R https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biu093
%X Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are projected to occur within the next several decades, to be difficult to reverse, and to have regional- to global-scale impacts on human society. We provide an overview of ecosystem, socioeconomic, and biophysical mechanisms mediating regime shifts and illustrate how these interact at regional scales by aggregation, synergy, and spreading processes. We give detailed examples of interactions for terrestrial ecosystems of central South America and for marine and coastal ecosystems of Southeast Asia. This analysis suggests that degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services over the twenty-first century could be far greater than was previously predicted. We identify key policy and management opportunities at regional to global scales to avoid these shifts.
%K biodiversity
%K biodiversity change
%K biodiversity conservation
%K degradation
%K ecosystem services
%K ecosystems
%K human–environment interactions
%K natural resources
%K overexploitation
%K socioeconomics
%K south america
%K southeast asia
%K tipping points
Publication year
2014
ISSN
0006-3568
Authors
Leadley, P.; Proença, V.; Fernández-Manjarrés, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, R.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guénette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smi
Language
English
Keywords
biodiversity, biodiversity change, biodiversity conservation, degradation, ecosystem services, ecosystems, human–environment interactions, natural resources, overexploitation, socioeconomics, south america, southeast asia, tipping points
Source
BioScience. 64(8): 665-679
