In a recent paper in this journal, Bradshaw and colleagues analyse country statistics on flood characteristics, land cover and land cover change, and conclude that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. The study addresses an important and long-standing question, but we identify important flaws. Principal among these are difficulties in interpreting country statistics and the correlation between population and floods. We review current knowledge, which suggests that the removal of trees does not affect large flood events, although associated landscape changes can under some circumstances. Reanalysis of the data analysed by Bradshaw and colleagues shows that population density alone already explains up to 83% of the variation in reported flood occurrences, considerably more than forest cover or deforestation (<10%). Feasible explanations for this statistical finding whether spurious or causative are not difficult to conceive. We, therefore, consider the conclusion of Bradshaw and colleagues to be unsupported. However, their study is a valuable first step to show how these or similar flood data might be used to further explore the relationship between land cover and flooding.
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TI - Forest-flood relation still tenuous - comment on 'Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world' by C.J.A. Bradshaw, N.S. Sodi, K.S.-H. Peh and B.W. Brook
AU - van Dijk, A.I.J.M.
AU - Calder, I.R.
AU - Bruijnzeel, S.L.A.
AU - Schellekens, J.
AU - Chappell, N.A.
AU - van Noordwijk, M.
AB - In a recent paper in this journal, Bradshaw and colleagues analyse country statistics on flood characteristics, land cover and land cover change, and conclude that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. The study addresses an important and long-standing question, but we identify important flaws. Principal among these are difficulties in interpreting country statistics and the correlation between population and floods. We review current knowledge, which suggests that the removal of trees does not affect large flood events, although associated landscape changes can under some circumstances. Reanalysis of the data analysed by Bradshaw and colleagues shows that population density alone already explains up to 83% of the variation in reported flood occurrences, considerably more than forest cover or deforestation (
PY - 2009
UR - https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/32030/
DO - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01708.x
KW - conservation (storage), floods (rising water), forest, linear models, models, rainfall
ER -Endnote (.ciw)
%T Forest-flood relation still tenuous - comment on 'Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world' by C.J.A. Bradshaw, N.S. Sodi, K.S.-H. Peh and B.W. Brook
%A van Dijk, A.I.J.M.
%A Calder, I.R.
%A Bruijnzeel, S.L.A.
%A Schellekens, J.
%A Chappell, N.A.
%A van Noordwijk, M.
%D 2009
%U https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/32030/
%R https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01708.x
%X In a recent paper in this journal, Bradshaw and colleagues analyse country statistics on flood characteristics, land cover and land cover change, and conclude that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. The study addresses an important and long-standing question, but we identify important flaws. Principal among these are difficulties in interpreting country statistics and the correlation between population and floods. We review current knowledge, which suggests that the removal of trees does not affect large flood events, although associated landscape changes can under some circumstances. Reanalysis of the data analysed by Bradshaw and colleagues shows that population density alone already explains up to 83% of the variation in reported flood occurrences, considerably more than forest cover or deforestation (
%K conservation (storage)
%K floods (rising water)
%K forest
%K linear models
%K models
%K rainfall
Publication year
2009
ISSN
1365-2486
Authors
van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; Calder, I.R.; Bruijnzeel, S.L.A.; Schellekens, J.; Chappell, N.A.; van Noordwijk, M.
Language
English
Keywords
conservation (storage), floods (rising water), forest, linear models, models, rainfall
Source
Global Change Biology. 15(1): 110-115
