Increasing drought pressure under anthropogenic climate change may jeopardize the potential of tropical forests to capture carbon in woody biomass and act as a long-term carbon dioxide sink. To evaluate this risk, we assessed drought impacts in 483 tree-ring chronologies from across the tropics and found an overall modest stem growth decline (2.5% with a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 to 2.7%) during the 10% driest years since 1930. Stem growth declines exceeded 10% in 25% of cases and were larger at hotter and drier sites and for gymnosperms compared with angiosperms. Growth declines generally did not outlast drought years and were partially mitigated by growth stimulation in wet years. Thus, pantropical forest carbon sequestration through stem growth has hitherto shown drought resilience that may, however, diminish under future climate change.
This work is licensed under © American Association for the Advancement of Science. All right reserved.
This work is licensed under © American Association for the Advancement of Science. All right reserved.
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TI - Pantropical tree rings show small effects of drought on stem growth
AU - Zuidema, P.A.
AU - Groenendijk, P.
AU - Rahman, M.
AU - Trouet, V.
AU - Abiyu, A.
AU - Acuña-Soto, R.
AU - Adenesky-Filho, E.
AU - Alfaro-Sánchez, R.
AU - Anholetto, C.R.
AU - Aragão, J.R.V.
AU - Assis-Pereira, G.
AU - Astudillo-Sánchez, C.C.
AU - Barbosa, A.C.
AU - Battipaglia, G.
AU - Beeckman, H.
AU - Botosso, P.C.
AU - Bourland, N.
AU - Bräuning, A.
AU - Brienen, R.
AU - Brookhouse, M.
AU - Buajan, S.
AU - Buckley, B.M.
AU - Camarero, J.J.
AU - Carrillo-Parra, A.
AU - Ceccantini, G.
AU - Centeno-Erguera, L.R.
AU - Cerano-Paredes, J.
AU - Cervantes-Martínez, R.
AU - Chanthorn, W.
AU - Chen, Y.-J.
AU - Cintra, B.B.L.
AU - Cornejo-Oviedo, E.H.
AU - Cortés-Cortés, O.
AU - Costa, C.M.
AU - Couralet, C.
AU - Crispín-De-La-Cruz, D.B.
AU - D'Arrigo, R.
AU - David, D.A.
AU - de Ridder, M.
AU - Valle, J.I.D.
AU - Dobner Júnior, M.
AU - Doucet, J.-L.
AU - Dünisch, O.
AU - Enquist, B.J.
AU - Esemann-Quadros, K.
AU - Esquivel-Arriaga, G.
AU - Fan, Z.-X.
AU - Fayolle, A.
AU - Fenilli, T.A.B.
AU - Ferrero, M.E.
AU - Fichtler, E.
AU - Finnegan, P.M.
AU - Fontana, C.
AU - Francisco, K.S.
AU - Fu, P.-L.
AU - Galväo, F.
AU - Gebrekirstos, A.
AU - Giraldo, J.A.
AU - Gloor, E.
AU - Godoy-Veiga, M.
AU - Granato-Souza, D.
AU - Guerra, A.
AU - Haneca, K.
AU - Harley, G.L.
AU - Heinrich, I.
AU - Helle, G.
AU - Hornink, B.
AU - Hubau, W.
AU - Inga, J.G.
AU - Islam, M.
AU - Jiang, Y.-M.
AU - Kaib, M.
AU - Khamisi, Z.H.
AU - Koprowski, M.
AU - Layme, E.
AU - Leffler, A.J.
AU - Ligot, G.
AU - Lisi, C.S.
AU - Loader, N.J.
AU - de Almeida Lobo, F.
AU - Locosselli, G.M.
AU - Longhi-Santos, T.
AU - López, L.
AU - López-Hernández, M.I.
AU - Louzada, J.L.P.C.
AU - Manzanedo, R.D.
AU - Marcon, A.K.
AU - Maxwell, J.T.
AU - Mendoza-Villa, O.N.
AU - Romany Nunes Menezes, Í.
AU - Mokria, M.
AU - Ribeiro Montóia, V.
AU - Moors, E.
AU - Moreno, M.
AU - Muñiz-Castro, M.A.
AU - Nabais, C.
AU - Nathalang, A.
AU - Ngoma, J.
AU - de Carvalho Nogueira, F.
AU - Oliveira, J.M.
AB - Increasing drought pressure under anthropogenic climate change may jeopardize the potential of tropical forests to capture carbon in woody biomass and act as a long-term carbon dioxide sink. To evaluate this risk, we assessed drought impacts in 483 tree-ring chronologies from across the tropics and found an overall modest stem growth decline (2.5% with a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 to 2.7%) during the 10% driest years since 1930. Stem growth declines exceeded 10% in 25% of cases and were larger at hotter and drier sites and for gymnosperms compared with angiosperms. Growth declines generally did not outlast drought years and were partially mitigated by growth stimulation in wet years. Thus, pantropical forest carbon sequestration through stem growth has hitherto shown drought resilience that may, however, diminish under future climate change.
PY - 2025
UR - https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/46292/
DO - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adq6607
KW - angiosperms, biomass, carbon sequestration, chronologies, climate change, drought, gymnosperms, resilience, stem growth, tropical forests
ER -Endnote (.ciw)
%T Pantropical tree rings show small effects of drought on stem growth
%A Zuidema, P.A.
%A Groenendijk, P.
%A Rahman, M.
%A Trouet, V.
%A Abiyu, A.
%A Acuña-Soto, R.
%A Adenesky-Filho, E.
%A Alfaro-Sánchez, R.
%A Anholetto, C.R.
%A Aragão, J.R.V.
%A Assis-Pereira, G.
%A Astudillo-Sánchez, C.C.
%A Barbosa, A.C.
%A Battipaglia, G.
%A Beeckman, H.
%A Botosso, P.C.
%A Bourland, N.
%A Bräuning, A.
%A Brienen, R.
%A Brookhouse, M.
%A Buajan, S.
%A Buckley, B.M.
%A Camarero, J.J.
%A Carrillo-Parra, A.
%A Ceccantini, G.
%A Centeno-Erguera, L.R.
%A Cerano-Paredes, J.
%A Cervantes-Martínez, R.
%A Chanthorn, W.
%A Chen, Y.-J.
%A Cintra, B.B.L.
%A Cornejo-Oviedo, E.H.
%A Cortés-Cortés, O.
%A Costa, C.M.
%A Couralet, C.
%A Crispín-De-La-Cruz, D.B.
%A D'Arrigo, R.
%A David, D.A.
%A de Ridder, M.
%A Valle, J.I.D.
%A Dobner Júnior, M.
%A Doucet, J.-L.
%A Dünisch, O.
%A Enquist, B.J.
%A Esemann-Quadros, K.
%A Esquivel-Arriaga, G.
%A Fan, Z.-X.
%A Fayolle, A.
%A Fenilli, T.A.B.
%A Ferrero, M.E.
%A Fichtler, E.
%A Finnegan, P.M.
%A Fontana, C.
%A Francisco, K.S.
%A Fu, P.-L.
%A Galväo, F.
%A Gebrekirstos, A.
%A Giraldo, J.A.
%A Gloor, E.
%A Godoy-Veiga, M.
%A Granato-Souza, D.
%A Guerra, A.
%A Haneca, K.
%A Harley, G.L.
%A Heinrich, I.
%A Helle, G.
%A Hornink, B.
%A Hubau, W.
%A Inga, J.G.
%A Islam, M.
%A Jiang, Y.-M.
%A Kaib, M.
%A Khamisi, Z.H.
%A Koprowski, M.
%A Layme, E.
%A Leffler, A.J.
%A Ligot, G.
%A Lisi, C.S.
%A Loader, N.J.
%A de Almeida Lobo, F.
%A Locosselli, G.M.
%A Longhi-Santos, T.
%A López, L.
%A López-Hernández, M.I.
%A Louzada, J.L.P.C.
%A Manzanedo, R.D.
%A Marcon, A.K.
%A Maxwell, J.T.
%A Mendoza-Villa, O.N.
%A Romany Nunes Menezes, Í.
%A Mokria, M.
%A Ribeiro Montóia, V.
%A Moors, E.
%A Moreno, M.
%A Muñiz-Castro, M.A.
%A Nabais, C.
%A Nathalang, A.
%A Ngoma, J.
%A de Carvalho Nogueira, F.
%A Oliveira, J.M.
%D 2025
%U https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/46292/
%R https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adq6607
%X Increasing drought pressure under anthropogenic climate change may jeopardize the potential of tropical forests to capture carbon in woody biomass and act as a long-term carbon dioxide sink. To evaluate this risk, we assessed drought impacts in 483 tree-ring chronologies from across the tropics and found an overall modest stem growth decline (2.5% with a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 to 2.7%) during the 10% driest years since 1930. Stem growth declines exceeded 10% in 25% of cases and were larger at hotter and drier sites and for gymnosperms compared with angiosperms. Growth declines generally did not outlast drought years and were partially mitigated by growth stimulation in wet years. Thus, pantropical forest carbon sequestration through stem growth has hitherto shown drought resilience that may, however, diminish under future climate change.
%K angiosperms
%K biomass
%K carbon sequestration
%K chronologies
%K climate change
%K drought
%K gymnosperms
%K resilience
%K stem growth
%K tropical forests
Publication year
2025
Authors
Zuidema, P.A.; Groenendijk, P.; Rahman, M.; Trouet, V.; Abiyu, A.; Acuña-Soto, R.; Adenesky-Filho, E.; Alfaro-Sánchez, R.; Anholetto, C.R.; Aragão, J.R.V.; Assis-Pereira, G.; Astudillo-Sánchez, C.C.; Barbosa, A.C.; Battipaglia, G.; Beeckman, H.; Botosso, P.C.; Bourland, N.; Bräuning, A.; Brienen, R.; Brookhouse, M.; Buajan, S.; Buckley, B.M.; Camarero, J.J.; Carrillo-Parra, A.; Ceccantini, G.; Centeno-Erguera, L.R.; Cerano-Paredes, J.; Cervantes-Martínez, R.; Chanthorn, W.; Chen, Y.-J.; Cintra, B.B.L.; Cornejo-Oviedo, E.H.; Cortés-Cortés, O.; Costa, C.M.; Couralet, C.; Crispín-De-La-Cruz, D.B.; D'Arrigo, R.; David, D.A.; de Ridder, M.; Valle, J.I.D.; Dobner Júnior, M.; Doucet, J.-L.; Dünisch, O.; Enquist, B.J.; Esemann-Quadros, K.; Esquivel-Arriaga, G.; Fan, Z.-X.; Fayolle, A.; Fenilli, T.A.B.; Ferrero, M.E.; Fichtler, E.; Finnegan, P.M.; Fontana, C.; Francisco, K.S.; Fu, P.-L.; Galväo, F.; Gebrekirstos, A.; Giraldo, J.A.; Gloor, E.; Godoy-Veiga, M.; Granato-Souza, D.; Guerra, A.; Haneca, K.; Harley, G.L.; Heinrich, I.; Helle, G.; Hornink, B.; Hubau, W.; Inga, J.G.; Islam, M.; Jiang, Y.-M.; Kaib, M.; Khamisi, Z.H.; Koprowski, M.; Layme, E.; Leffler, A.J.; Ligot, G.; Lisi, C.S.; Loader, N.J.; de Almeida Lobo, F.; Locosselli, G.M.; Longhi-Santos, T.; López, L.; López-Hernández, M.I.; Louzada, J.L.P.C.; Manzanedo, R.D.; Marcon, A.K.; Maxwell, J.T.; Mendoza-Villa, O.N.; Romany Nunes Menezes, Í.; Mokria, M.; Ribeiro Montóia, V.; Moors, E.; Moreno, M.; Muñiz-Castro, M.A.; Nabais, C.; Nathalang, A.; Ngoma, J.; de Carvalho Nogueira, F.; Oliveira, J.M.
Language
English
Keywords
angiosperms, biomass, carbon sequestration, chronologies, climate change, drought, gymnosperms, resilience, stem growth, tropical forests
Source
Science. 389(6759): 532-538
