Despite growing commitment for tropical forest conservation, the understanding of complex spatio-temporal deforestation patterns and their underlying drivers remains limited. This study uses archetype analysis to examine global spatio-temporal deforestation patterns in tropical moist forests (TMFs) over the last two decades. This work underpins our attempt to develop a systematized diagnostic of tropical forest policies, aimed at stemming deforestation and forest degradation. We identify seven archetypes of forest state and its change in tropical moist forests, assess conversion from forest to other land uses in deforestation areas, and evaluate deforestation risk in landscapes with high remaining forest cover and low historical deforestation. Our analysis covers approximately 2.8 billion hectares of land area in the tropics that contained tropical moist forest in 2000 – equivalent to about three quarters of the world’s TMF landscapes – and thus includes both forest and non-forest areas within those units. Only less than a third of TMFs were classified as intact forest areas (i.e., high forest cover, low deforestation), while approximately a quarter were classified as deforestation areas (i.e., high deforestation). TMFs in Southeast Asia are showing higher proportions of deforestation areas and degraded forests than other regions. Central and South America has the largest absolute area of deforestation areas. While deforestation rates in sub-Saharan Africa have historically been lower, the proportion of deforestation areas is similar to that in the other continents. We could not discern clear patterns linking deforestation areas to specific types of land-use conversion, which suggests that local context plays a more significant role in shaping deforestation patterns. Low accessibility provides passive protection to a substantial part (34%) of intact forest landscapes with good agricultural suitability, particularly in the Amazon, the Congo Basin and southern New Guinea. These results indicate that tropical moist forests remain under continued pressure, with deforestation persisting at high rates. Once elevated deforestation levels are reached, they become difficult to reduce. The archetypes approach is a pragmatic tool to classify tropical deforestation, identify important hotspots under threat, and support spatially targeted policy interventions.
The present paper provides the analytical foundation for four country reports, each examining deforestation policies through the lens of deforestation archetypes in a specific national context: Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, and Peru. Together, these five papers introduce the deforestation diagnostic framework.
This work is licensed under CC-BY 4.0
The present paper provides the analytical foundation for four country reports, each examining deforestation policies through the lens of deforestation archetypes in a specific national context: Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, and Peru. Together, these five papers introduce the deforestation diagnostic framework.
This work is licensed under CC-BY 4.0
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TI - Archetypes of tropical moist forest change
AU - De Sy, V.
AU - Angelsen, A.
AU - Naime, J.
AU - Herold, M.
AU - Ladewig, M.
AU - Robiglio, V.
AU - Vergara, K.
AU - Martius, C.
AB - Despite growing commitment for tropical forest conservation, the understanding of complex spatio-temporal deforestation patterns and their underlying drivers remains limited. This study uses archetype analysis to examine global spatio-temporal deforestation patterns in tropical moist forests (TMFs) over the last two decades. This work underpins our attempt to develop a systematized diagnostic of tropical forest policies, aimed at stemming deforestation and forest degradation. We identify seven archetypes of forest state and its change in tropical moist forests, assess conversion from forest to other land uses in deforestation areas, and evaluate deforestation risk in landscapes with high remaining forest cover and low historical deforestation. Our analysis covers approximately 2.8 billion hectares of land area in the tropics that contained tropical moist forest in 2000 – equivalent to about three quarters of the world’s TMF landscapes – and thus includes both forest and non-forest areas within those units. Only less than a third of TMFs were classified as intact forest areas (i.e., high forest cover, low deforestation), while approximately a quarter were classified as deforestation areas (i.e., high deforestation). TMFs in Southeast Asia are showing higher proportions of deforestation areas and degraded forests than other regions. Central and South America has the largest absolute area of deforestation areas. While deforestation rates in sub-Saharan Africa have historically been lower, the proportion of deforestation areas is similar to that in the other continents. We could not discern clear patterns linking deforestation areas to specific types of land-use conversion, which suggests that local context plays a more significant role in shaping deforestation patterns. Low accessibility provides passive protection to a substantial part (34%) of intact forest landscapes with good agricultural suitability, particularly in the Amazon, the Congo Basin and southern New Guinea. These results indicate that tropical moist forests remain under continued pressure, with deforestation persisting at high rates. Once elevated deforestation levels are reached, they become difficult to reduce. The archetypes approach is a pragmatic tool to classify tropical deforestation, identify important hotspots under threat, and support spatially targeted policy interventions.
The present paper provides the analytical foundation for four country reports, each examining deforestation policies through the lens of deforestation archetypes in a specific national context: Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, and Peru. Together, these five papers introduce the deforestation diagnostic framework.
PY - 2026
PB - CIFOR-ICRAF
PP - Bogor, Indonesia and Nairobi, Kenya
UR - https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/9455/
DO - https://doi.org/10.17528/cifor-icraf/009455
KW - archetype, deforestation, degradation, degraded forests, forest conservation, forestry policies, forests, land use planning, moist, tropical forests
ER -Endnote (.ciw)
%T Archetypes of tropical moist forest change
%A De Sy, V.
%A Angelsen, A.
%A Naime, J.
%A Herold, M.
%A Ladewig, M.
%A Robiglio, V.
%A Vergara, K.
%A Martius, C.
%D 2026
%I CIFOR-ICRAF
%C Bogor, Indonesia and Nairobi, Kenya
%U https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/9455/
%R https://doi.org/10.17528/cifor-icraf/009455
%X Despite growing commitment for tropical forest conservation, the understanding of complex spatio-temporal deforestation patterns and their underlying drivers remains limited. This study uses archetype analysis to examine global spatio-temporal deforestation patterns in tropical moist forests (TMFs) over the last two decades. This work underpins our attempt to develop a systematized diagnostic of tropical forest policies, aimed at stemming deforestation and forest degradation. We identify seven archetypes of forest state and its change in tropical moist forests, assess conversion from forest to other land uses in deforestation areas, and evaluate deforestation risk in landscapes with high remaining forest cover and low historical deforestation. Our analysis covers approximately 2.8 billion hectares of land area in the tropics that contained tropical moist forest in 2000 – equivalent to about three quarters of the world’s TMF landscapes – and thus includes both forest and non-forest areas within those units. Only less than a third of TMFs were classified as intact forest areas (i.e., high forest cover, low deforestation), while approximately a quarter were classified as deforestation areas (i.e., high deforestation). TMFs in Southeast Asia are showing higher proportions of deforestation areas and degraded forests than other regions. Central and South America has the largest absolute area of deforestation areas. While deforestation rates in sub-Saharan Africa have historically been lower, the proportion of deforestation areas is similar to that in the other continents. We could not discern clear patterns linking deforestation areas to specific types of land-use conversion, which suggests that local context plays a more significant role in shaping deforestation patterns. Low accessibility provides passive protection to a substantial part (34%) of intact forest landscapes with good agricultural suitability, particularly in the Amazon, the Congo Basin and southern New Guinea. These results indicate that tropical moist forests remain under continued pressure, with deforestation persisting at high rates. Once elevated deforestation levels are reached, they become difficult to reduce. The archetypes approach is a pragmatic tool to classify tropical deforestation, identify important hotspots under threat, and support spatially targeted policy interventions.
The present paper provides the analytical foundation for four country reports, each examining deforestation policies through the lens of deforestation archetypes in a specific national context: Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, and Peru. Together, these five papers introduce the deforestation diagnostic framework.
%K archetype
%K deforestation
%K degradation
%K degraded forests
%K forest conservation
%K forestry policies
%K forests
%K land use planning
%K moist
%K tropical forests
Publisher
CIFOR-ICRAF: Bogor, Indonesia and Nairobi, Kenya
Année de publication
2026
Auteurs
De Sy, V.; Angelsen, A.; Naime, J.; Herold, M.; Ladewig, M.; Robiglio, V.; Vergara, K.; Martius, C.
Langue
English
Mots clés
archetype, deforestation, degradation, degraded forests, forest conservation, forestry policies, forests, land use planning, moist, tropical forests
